This article examines how vulnerable Lebanon is with respect to a series of nested crises unfolding in the Middle East, while having little bearing on the course of events. In this regard, one can see the extent to which these crises are intertwined (in such a way that none can be solved in isolation) through a transversal examination of their reception in the Lebanese arena. On top of that, Lebanon is facing pressing economic challenges not adequately dealt with by the authorities whose dysfunctionality is mainly related to the confessional system of governance, further exposing the country to regional turbulence. The ruling political class’ reliance on wishful thinking solutions and social resilience in the face of shocks endangers Lebanon’s stability.

Rayan Haddad holds a PhD in International Relations from Sciences Po Paris (2007). He is a member of the Cercle des Chercheurs sur le Moyen-Orient (Paris). His main research interests lie in studying the importation of exogenous conflicts into the Lebanese arena and Hezbollah’s policies.

Rayan Haddad
Lebanon and the plight of living under volcanoes

Curtis R. Ryan
Jordan: Stability and instability in the Hashemite Kingdom

Michael Semple
Locating the Uzbek narrative of social justice within the Afghan Taliban movement’s political culture

Ruth Hanau Santini
The state of dis-Union: The EU and Europe in the MENA region since 2011

Wolfgang Pusztai
Key factors of instability in Libya

Zeinab Abul-Magd
The military, the economy, and social instability in Egypt under al-Sisi

This article considers how Uzbek members of the Afghan Taliban Movement thought about ethnic relations and pursued a notion of social justice in their dealings with the ethnic Pashtun leadership of the movement. The political culture of the movement frustrated the Uzbeks’ aspirations to control appointments of officials in areas inhabited by Afghanistan’s Turkic minorities. The contradictions between Taliban political culture and the Uzbeks’ idea of social justice drove strategic decisions by Uzbek and Turkman Taliban during the post-2001 phase of jihadi, including their attempt to align with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

Michael Semple is a professor at the Senator George J. Mitchell Institute for Global Peace, Security and Justice, Queen’s University Belfast. He conducts research and dialogue, delivers policy advice and participates in the public debate on conflict and peacemaking in Southern Asia and the Middle East. He has published extensively on the Taliban movement. His recent work includes research into the political culture of the Taliban and its implications for peace-making strategies. He has worked and travelled extensively in Afghanistan and Pakistan for three decades. He has served with the United Nations and was deputy to the European Union Special Representative in Afghanistan.

This article argues that the local elections of 31 March are a major turning point for Turkey’s political prospects. The re-run of the elections in Istanbul should not be understood as an indicator for the country’s democratic backsliding or its ‘exit from democracy’ – a critical juncture that happened much earlier – but suggests that even under the conditions of an albeit unstable dictatorship, elections can have unintended but far reaching consequences. In the Turkish case, this is the emergence of an emboldened opposition that for the first time in the country’s history now faces the opportunity to embrace a democratic habitus and carry the country beyond its longstanding predicament of being a ‘democracy without democrats’.

Kerem Öktem is Professor of Southeast European Studies and Modern Turkey at the University of Graz and Associate of the Centre of International Studies at the University of Oxford. He is also the founding chair of the Consortium for European Symposia on Turkey. He studied Modern Middle Eastern Studies at Oxford, where he wrote his PhD in the field of Political Geography. He works on Turkish politics with a particular interest in ethnic and religious politics and social movements. Turkey’s Exit from Democracy (Routledge, 2018, co-edited with Karabekir Akkouyunlu), explores the political and societal dimensions of de-democratisation in the context of the country’s transition to a hyper-presidential regime.

The paper discusses the structural reforms that Turkey needs to introduce in order to attain an environment that will enhance the prospect for growth and improved living standards and simultaneously decrease the occurrence of economic crisis over time. After discussing governance and economic growth issues, the paper concentrates on how Turkey could establish a rule-based liberal market economy.

Sübidey Togan is Professor Emeritus at Bilkent University. His publications include Foreign Trade Regime and Trade Liberalization in Turkey during the 1980’s (Avebury 1994), The Economy of Turkey since Liberalization (Macmillan Press ltd, 1996, co-editor v. N. Balasubramanyam), Turkey and Central and Eastern European Countries in Transition: Towards Membership of the EU (Palgrave Macmillan ltd., 2001, co-editor v.N. Balasubramanyam), Turkey: Economic Reform & Accession to the European Union (world Bank and Centre for Economic Policy Research CEPR, 2005, co-editor B. Hoekman), Macroeconomic Policies for EU Accession (Edward Elgar Publishing, 2007, co-editors E. Başçı and J. von Hagen), Economic Liberalization and Turkey (Routledge, 2010) and The Liberalization of Transportation Services in the EU and Turkey (Oxford University Press, 2016). His area of interest is International Economics.

The article introduces the legal basis of Turkish municipalism from the late Ottoman Empire until the last law change in 2012. It then gives an overview of municipal practice and shows the similarities and differences between the ruling party AKP and the main opposition party CHP in realising the legal requirements. The article concludes with some suggestions – albeit from a purely municipal perspective – as to why the CHP seems to be have been more successful in greater municipality elections recently.

Charlotte Joppien is managing director at the Türkei Europa Zentrum at University of Hamburg, and a researcher at the administrative court in Hamburg. Her dissertation on municipal practice and party organisation in Turkey was awarded the dissertation award of the Society for Turkology, Ottoman and Turkish Studies and was published in 2018 Municipal Politics in Turkey: Local Government and Party Organisation (Routledge).

Salim Çevik
Municipal elections and its long-term impact

Charlotte Joppien
Turkey’s 2019 municipal elections

Sübidey Togan
Structural reforms in Turkey

Kerem Öktem
Politics after Turkey’s exit from democracy

Funda Tekin
Turkey and the EU: From accession to estrangement?

Özlem Tür
Turkish foreign policy and the Syrian crisis: Challenges, opportunities and shifting alliances

Ergin Günes
Refugees as an instrument of Turkish power politics

Despite being merely a municipal election, the 31 March 2019 elections in Turkey were a watershed event in the Turkish political history. This article depicts two crucial features of Turkish politics; competitive authoritarian nature of the political regime and the dominance of identity politics and cleavages in the political life. These two features weighed heavily in this election as well, but the article also demonstrates through the electoral process, that both features are also slowly changing. As such the long-term implications of this election would go far beyond the limits of a local election.

Salim Çevik is a visiting researcher at SwP-Berlin. Prior to joining to SwP, he held research or teaching positions at lund University (Sweden), Ipek University (Turkey), Bilgi University (Turkey) and Columbia University (USA). His main areas of research are religion in politics, democratisation, nationalism and nation building and his most recent publication is Erdogan’s Comprehensive Religious Policy: Management of the Religious Realm in Turkey, (SwP Comments, 2019).

Through its refugee policy, Turkey gained great influence on both Sunni migrants from and Sunni fighters in Syria. It uses this influence in many ways to ensure its security vis-à-vis the Kurds and to extend its power in Syria. It also uses it in its relations with Russia and the US to obtain their support for its policy of interest. At the same time, through its migration policy, it puts pressure on the EU to obtain financial support.

Ergin Günes is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Munzur in Tunceli. He has published several articles on Middle East policy and Turkey.

Libya is a failed state. The different factors of instability can be grouped into the six areas of governance, international relations, demography, economy, social standards, and security, which are all interrelated. Altogether, the situation in Libya is very complex. It must not be simplified by reducing the conflict on a fight for or against General Heftar or the Islamists. For now, a major improvement is not in sight.

Wolfgang Pusztai is a freelance security and policy analyst with a special focus on North Africa. He was the Austrian Defense Attaché to Italy, Greece, Libya and Tunisia from 2007 to 2012. He has a Master’s Degree from the University of Vienna (Political Science) and from the National Defense University/National War College in Washington D.C. (National Security Strategy; distinguished graduate). He is Director of the California-based advisory company Perim Associates. Since 2016 he is the Chairman of the Advisory Board of the National Council on US-Libya Relations.

This article aims to analyse Ankara’s policy towards the Syrian crisis and argues that this policy has become a game-changer in Turkish foreign policy, deeply affecting its relations with regional and international actors. The Turkish government took a stance against the al-Assad regime as the crisis began and became a part of the civil war in Syria. However, as the resilience of the regime became evident, Turkey felt isolated and began to focus more actively to the threat emanating from Northern Syria mostly due to the PYD/YPG, and led two military operations in this country. In the meanwhile, strong US support for the PYD/YPG pushed Ankara closer to Moscow and Turkey tried to become an active player in the future of Syria by developing closer links to Russia and Iran. This move on the one hand gave an opportunity to Ankara to break out of its isolation and on the other hand led to a questioning of the future of the traditional pro-western stance in Turkey’s foreign policy.

Özlem Tür is Professor of International Relations at Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey. Her main expertise include Turkey’s relations with the Middle East (especially Syria, Israel and lebanon) and the Arab-Israeli conflict. Her publications include Turkey-Syria Relations – Between Enmity and Amity (london: Ashgate, 2013, co-edited with Raymond Hinnebusch); Turkey and Israel in the 2000s (Israel Studies, 2012); Political Economy of Turkey’s Relations with the Middle East (Turkish Studies, 2011).

Turkey’s relations with Europe are as long as they are contested. Basically, they represent a moving target with sharp u-turns involved that challenge the relationship. Turkey-EU relations are hence on a rollercoaster ride between accession and estrangement that has been lately on a full downswing with conflicts minimising chances for a closer relationship. However, so far, the so-called ‘train crash’ has been avoided. One relevant question that shall guide this article therefore is, what keeps the rollercoaster on track and what can slow the ride down to a convenient speed. The question of the appropriate framework for such a relationship will guide the concluding outlook on the analysis of what holds the two sides together and what drives them apart.

Funda Tekin is director of the Institute for European Politics in Berlin. Previously, she was vice director of the Centre for Turkey and European Union Studies at the University of Cologne where she directed the H2020 project FEUTURE – the Future of EU-Turkey Relations and the Jean Monnet Network Enhancing Visibility of the Academic Dialogue on EU-Turkey Cooperation. In addition to EU-Turkey relations she has published on flexible integration, BREXIT, and on various aspects of the decision-making procedures in the EU.