Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco: Precarious stabilisation under different circumstances

Description

Since 2011, Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco have seen different forms of political change. In Tunisia, the ouster of Ben Ali has yielded a thus far promising new democratic political order. Egypt has
seen its first elected president, Mohammed Mursi, after Husni Mubarak was overthrown – yet Mursi was toppled in 2013 by a military that reinstated its grip on power. Morocco held a constitutional referendum and early elections in 2011, and has exhibited a fair degree of stability since. Under differing circumstances, the three countries have achieved a fragile stabilisation of their respective political systems. The sustainability of this realignment will depend on the economic performance of the political leadership as well as the regional security environment. The trajectories of the three countries, however, will also be influenced by the EU and its foreign policy – even if the latter’s impact remains limited.

Michael Bauer is a Senior Researcher at the Center for Applied Policy Research (C.A.P.) at Ludwig Maximilians University in Munich and Founding Member and Deputy Chairman of the Middle East and International Affairs Research Group (MEIA Research). He heads the programme “Leading Change Across the Mediterranean” that the CAP has been implementing in cooperation with Egyptian, Moroccan and Tunisian partner institutions and with the support of the Federal Foreign Office since 2012.