Back to Enmity: Turkey-Syria Relations Since the Syrian Uprising

Description

The article examines the causes and consequences of the turn from amity to enmity in Turkey-Syrian relations as a result of the Syrian Uprising. The uprising precipitated negative tit-for-tat at the leadership level, which fed into a change in Turkish identity under the AKP. Turkey’s bid for neo-Ottoman hegemony had begun with a ‘zero problems’ policy and economic integration, but turned towards democracy promotion as the Arab Uprising opened a democratic road to power for Islamist parties kindred to Turkey’s ruling AKP. At the regional level, the struggle for Syria between Turkey and Iran precipitated Turkish re-alignment with the Sunni bloc. Turkey miscalculated the tenacity of the Asad regime and its increasing frustration led it to support the jihadists as the most effective fighters. This contributed to the rise of ISIS, which precipitated twin security threats to Turkey – blowback from ISIS and re-empowerment of the PKK. The costs of Turkey’s Syria policy exposed the gaps between its regional ambitions and its capabilities.