Journal - Orient Online

Will China become the new dominant actor in the broader Middle East?

Heinrich Kreft

Long considered peripherical and relatively insignificant by China´s leadership the Broader Middle East and particularly the Gulf States have moved into the focus of China´s foreign, foreign economic and security policy. China´s dependence on the region for oil supply has multiplied due to its economic boom. The safety of the shipping routes across the Arab and the Red Seas and the Suez Canal to Europe have become a Chinese concern too and the influence of Islamic fundamentalism from the region on its own Muslims. While China´s interest in the region has grown, the region is no longer a top priority for the US, since it has become self-sufficient in energy. The US has also reduced its military presence in the region. This leads to the impression that China could replace the US in the medium and longer term. This could indeed be the result, if the US is further retrenching form the region, but there are no signs that China intends to replace or even to push the US out of the region. With frequent top-level visits to key partners China pursues a friends-to-all approach to the region which it tries to integrate more and more in its Belt and Road Initiative and the Shanghai Cooperation Association. It remains open if Beijing can continue with this approach and avoid getting entangled in the conflicts of the region.

Heinrich Kreft is a German career diplomat and academic. Since September 2020 he is the Director of the Center for Diplomacy at Andrássy University in Budapest, Hungary, where he also holds the Chair for Diplomacy. From 2016–2020 he was Ambassador to the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg and before that Deputy Chief of Mission of the German Embassy in Madrid. Prior to this he was Ambassador and Director General for International Academic and Educational Relations and Dialogue among Civilizations in the German Foreign Ministry (2011-2014). In this capacity he set up various dialogue projects among others with parliamentarians and politicians from various Arab countries, Germany, France and the UK. Prior to this he served as Senior Foreign and Security Policy Advisor in the German Parliament (2006-2010). As diplomat he was stationed in La Paz (1988-91), in Tokyo (1991-94) and Washington D.C. (2001-04). In the Foreign Ministry he was a member of the Policy Planning Staff (in charge of the Americas, Asia and Economic Issues 1996-2001) and later Senior Strategic Analyst and Deputy Head of Policy Planning Staff (2004-06); He was visiting fellow at The Henry L Stimson Center (July-Dec. 2001), the Heritage Foundation (Jan. – March 2002) and the Woodrow Wilson International Center (April – June 2002) in Washington, D.C.; He has published extensively on major power political and economic relations; on international security; the Arab World; European, American and Asian political and economic affairs. Most recent publications on US-China relations; transatlantic relations; Islam in Germany; geopolitics and culture and on German and European foreign policy. He is a member of the German Council on Foreign Relations and of the Board of Trustees of the German Oriental Institute and The Sheikh Group. Heinrich Kreft has studied in the US, in Paris (“Science Po”) and holds a Master’s Degree and a Ph.D. in Political Science, History and Sociology from WWU Münster in Germany. He did field research in Ecuador and as a member of the German Development Institute (GDI) in Mali (Timbouctu region).

China’s foreign policy pragmatism and influence in Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia

Yahia H. Zoubir

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China’s presence in North Africa is longstanding but has increased significantly since the launch of the New Silk Road in 2013. While Sino-Algerian relations are the most comprehensive, China has also engaged with the other states, albeit predominantly in the economic realm. Pursuing a geo-economic approach, Beijing is also attracted by the North African states’ geostrategic position in the Mediterranean, their proximity to Europe, and as gateways to sub-Saharan Africa. The interconnectivity of networks will serve Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, the hallmark of President Xi Jinping’s foreign policy. Traditionally under the influence of European and US powers, the North African states have decided since the financial crisis of 2008 and the Arab uprisings of 2011 to turn to China and other outside powers for economic cooperation, particularly to revamp their inadequate infrastructure. While China has been rather successful in establishing good rapport with all the states in the region, its soft power has yet to match its economic prowess. Nevertheless, its health diplomacy under the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an increase in popularity in the region.

Yahia H. Zoubir is Professor of International Studies and International Management and Director of Research in Geopolitics at KEDGE Business School, France. He is also a Non-Resident Fellow at the Middle East Institute (Washington, DC). He is the author and/or editor of several books, such as The Routledge Handbook on China and the Middle East and North Africa (2022), Algerian Politics: Domestic Issues & International Relations (2020), North African Politics (2016), Global Security Watch-The Maghreb (2013), North Africa: Politics, Region and the Limits of Transformation (2008), etc. He has published dozens of articles in academic journals, like the Journal of Contemporary China, Foreign Affairs, Third World Quarterly, Mediterranean Politics, International Affairs, Africa Spectrum, Journal of North African Studies, Democratization, Middle East Journal, Arab Studies Quarterly, Africa Today and Middle East Policy as well as dozens of book chapters and articles in encyclopedias. His research interests focus on the foreign policies of China, Russia and the United States in the Middle East and North Africa as well as issues of international development and governance.

Russia in a post-American Middle East: The shaping of a new regional order

Chiara Lovotti

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The Cold War’s bipolarism first and the US’ unipolar moment after, have shaped the international order for decades, including the MENA regional order. Over the last few years, globally and regionally, a redistribution of power seems to be taking place. As the US role as the unchallenged security provider in the region is steadily declining, new powers are rising and old ones are making their return. Russia belongs in the latter category, and provides the most successful example: after years of quasi-absence, not only Moscow is back but it has become one of the most determinant players in the region affairs. Much of this success builds on the historical advantage that the Russians enjoyed in the MENA region since early in the past century, which helps Russia to build on historical partnerships to establish collaborations. However, although elements of continuity with the past exist, Russia today behaves differently. This article challenges some of the most common assumptions when dealing with Russia’s role in the MENA. Particularly, the narrative of the region as the stage for US-Russia competition sounds obsolete, for Russia seems to be moving in a largely post-American scenario.

Chiara Lovotti is a Doctoral Fellow at the University of Bologna and a Visitor at the School of Global and Area Studies of the University of Oxford. She is a specialist in the international relations of the MENA region, with a focus on Russia’s foreign policy in the area and associated political and security issues. Her current academic research explores the Soviet Union’s impact on the state-building processes in postcolonial Arab countries, especially Egypt, Iraq and Syria. Chiara is also Fellow at the Europaeum Scholars Programme and Associate Research Fellow at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies. She has recently co-edited a Routledge book entitled “Russia in the Middle East and North Africa. Continuity and Change”.

The Journal for politics, economics, and culture of the Middle East published by the German Orient-Institute

Topics

Keywords

ORIENT IV 2021: External actors’ role in the MENA region

ORIENT III 2021: Rapprochement in the GCC

ORIENT II 2021: The role of Islamist groups and movements in the Near and Middle East

ORIENT I 2021: Ten years after the Arab Spring

ORIENT IV 2020: Syria – Dynamics of war and issues of reconstruction

ORIENT III 2020: Public Health and the Near and Middle East

Will China become the new dominant actor in the broader Middle East?

China’s foreign policy pragmatism and influence in Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia

US-Egyptian relations after the Arab Spring

Russia and the Middle East: The quest for recognition

Russia in a post-American Middle East: The shaping of a new regional order

Russia’s regional balancing and interests in the Middle East: Benefits, risks and implications for Europe

Revisiting India’s Middle East policy: Diplomacy, politics, strategy and business