Domestic and geo-politics put Syrians in Turkey between a rock and a hard place

Description

Syrian exiles in Turkey, home to the world’s largest Syrian refugee community, are caught in
a Catch-22. Many no longer see Turkey as a safe refuge as anti-migrant sentiment in the country
mounts. Even worse, Turkish efforts to improve relations with President Bashar al-Assad, whose
overthrow Turkey long favored, raise the specter of forced repatriation. Exiles fear that their return
will expose them to the Syrian regime’s wrath or turn them into pawns in a demographic game of
chess in Turkish and rebel-controlled parts of northern Syria. By relocating refugees of Arab
descent to the north of Syria, Turkey hopes to dilute the Syrian Kurdish presence in the region.
The exiles’ fate hangs in the balance, with Al-Assad adopting a hard line in negotiating
the terms of a reconciliation. Al-Assad insists on an agreed withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syria
as part of a reconciliation. Turkey may no longer seek Al-Assad’s overthrow but says it will discuss
a troop withdrawal only once Syria adopts a new constitution and holds inclusive elections in the
knowledge that Al-Assadhas no intention of committing political hara-kiri. None of this
precludes a mutually beneficial burying of the hatchet that would serve the
interests of the Al-Assad regime and Turkey but may not bode well for Turkey’s Syrian exile
community.

James M. Dorsey  is a Senior Fellow focused on the Middle East and North Africa who publishes
widely in peer-reviewed journals as well as non-academic publications. A veteran, award-winning
foreign correspondent for four decades in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, Europe
and the United States for publications such as The wall Street Journal, The New
York Times and the Financial Times, James has met a multitude of the region’s leaders.
James writes a widely acclaimed blog, The Turbulent world of Middle East Soccer, has published
a book with the same title, and authors a syndicated column.