The Arab Spring: Five years later

Description

Three processes are central to understanding the difference between the early promise of the Arab Spring, and its trials and tribulations five years later: 1) Counter-revolution: undertaken by the interests that benefited from the old regimes, and that sought to keep in place as much of the old order as possible. 2) Militarisation: what had began as peaceful protest surrounded by great local majorities, gave rise to a scene in which no faction could reliably claim to represent “the people” as a whole. 3) Geopolitics: what began as popular, indigenous protests in which no external power had any role, gradually turned into international crises, in which key decisions were once again in the hands of geopolitical actors, and no longer in the hands of popular movements. This article discusses the origins and dynamics of these three factors, and ends by arguing that looking at cultural transformation behind the current façade of Arab politics, is key to appreciating the real longterm impact of the Arab Spring.