Orient III 2024: Challenges to trade in the Middle East

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From Yemen to the high seas: The impact of Houthi activities on regional security and international trade

Ala Mohsen

Since the war broke out between Israel and Hamas in October 2023, the Houthis of Yemen have launched numerous attacks on civilian and military vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, ostensibly to demand an end to the Israeli operations in the Gaza strip. While the Houthis have already used the Red Sea as an arena of operations in their war against the Saudi-led coalition since 2015, the new attacks constitute greater threats to global trade and international security as they involve indiscriminate attacks against civilian shipping and commercial interests. To understand the causes and consequences of the Red Sea crisis, this study provides a three-level analysis focusing on the ideology and repertoires of the Houthi movement, the context of the Yemen Civil War and how global developments have facilitated these unfortunate outcomes. The article concludes with a critique of the current approaches dealing with the Houthi escalation and proposes a realistic, unified and well-coordinated strategy to contain Houthi threats and mitigate their destructive impact.

Ala Mohsen has a PhD in Political Science, International Relations and Comparative Politics from the University of Utah, USA, having also worked as a research consultant at the Yemen Policy Center in the areas of due diligence and peace-building. He has contributed to publications including The Journal of the Middle East and Africa and Transformations as well as the book Youth Civic Engagement and Local Peacebuilding in the Middle East and North Africa (Routledge, 2021) and is a member of the American Center for South Yemen Studies.

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Gulf states’ energy sectors in the context of regional disruption in the MENA region

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen

This article examines the degree to which energy sectors in the Gulf states have been affected, both directly and indirectly, by the regional disruption across the Middle East and North Africa since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in October 2023. Following a short introduction, the article contains three sections which analyse the (re)positioning of Gulf energy sectors in a time of changing global considerations, the varying impacts of regional disruption on the energy exporting states in the Gulf arising from the threats to regional chokepoints in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab and Red Sea, and the broader repercussions and implications for regional stability with particular focus on Saudi plans to develop its Red Sea coastline as well as on the mounting economic pressures on Egypt.

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen is Fellow for the Middle East at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. His research spans the history, political and international political economy, and international relations of the Gulf states and their changing position within the global order. He is the author of six books about the Gulf states, including Insecure Gulf: The End of Certainty and the Transition to the Post-Oil Era (Hurst, 2011), The Gulf States in International Political Economy (Palgrave Macmillan, 2015), Qatar and the Gulf Crisis (Oxford University Press, 2020), and Centers of Power in the Arab Gulf States (Hurst, 2023). Prior to joining the Baker Institute in 2013, he co-directed the Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalization in the Gulf States at the London School of Economics and Political Science and was also an Associate Fellow with the Middle East North Africa Programme at Chatham House between 2012 and 2021.

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Digitisation of the Arab world: A community approach?

Ayad Al-Ani

The digital sphere in the Arab world, which began to evolve at the dawn of the new millennium, was initially perceived as a catalyst for addressing the structural issues plaguing the Arab economy. This transformation, however, proved hard to control as the Arab Spring had shown the disruptive potential of technology in generating political voice. Digital transformation as an economic policy was therefore tightly supervised by the state class to prevent any undesired spillover. Consequently, the outcomes in both the economic and political spheres fell short of bringing about comprehensive improvements. The advent of climate change has now further intensified the economic crises in the Arab world, necessitating a search for more innovative and potentially more radical solutions. In this context, digitisation is finding new applications within the framework of Smart City concepts. The construction of these new-age cities, extending into cyberspace, holds the potential to bring about a radical transformation in the landscape of the Arab world. However, this transformation again is unfolding without an explicit discourse on possible new political and economic orientations. It is also taking place against the backdrop of a global multipolar restructuring process. This situation presents a critical decision for the Arab world: to align itself as a European periphery or to carve out its own distinct identity and political pole, whether that be Islamic, Asian, or otherwise. This decision – we must suspect – will carry with it implications for the usage of technology in the region.

Ayad Al-Ani is a professor extraordinary at the School of Public Leadership at Stellenbosch University in South Africa. He is also an Associated Member of the Einstein Center Digital Future in Berlin. He has served as the rector of the ESCP Europe Business School in Berlin and was an Executive Partner with Accenture.

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The failure of mediation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: historical junctures

Yaser Alashqar

In this essay, I examine three historical junctures in the failure of formal mediation in the Israeli- Palestinian conflict. The three historical junctures involve the United Nations partition plan in 1947, the autonomy framework of the Israeli-egyptian Camp David Accords in the late 1970s and the Madrid-Oslo negotiations in the 1990s. The essay ends with some reflections on future engagement in formal mediation at the policy and practice levels. Based on this historical and analytical overview, I clearly indicate that any effective mediation and future conflict resolution process must facilitate coherently and genuinely the implementation of the Palestinian right to self-determination beyond permanent occupation and oppressive autonomy. I also demonstrate through analysis and historical experience that any conclusive settlement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict must be based on sustainable peace, equality and justice.

Yaser Alashqar is lecturer in the school of law at Independent College in Dublin and a visiting professor in World Heritage Studies at University College Dublin in Ireland. His teaching and research focus on law and dispute resolution, including mediation, negotiation and arbitration. His academic and research interests also involve conflict, heritage and Israeli-Palestinian issues. He holds a PhD in Peace and Conflict Studies from Trinity College Dublin, and his recent published research includes Civil Society and Peacebuilding: Critical Review (2022) and Heritage in the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict: Sociopolitical Perspective (2022). He continues to work on training and research projects with european universities, government institutions and international organisations. He is also an academic member of the Centre for Palestine studies at the University of london and a frequent media commentator on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

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The 2023 war on Gaza: Iran between realpolitik and ideology

Mahjoob Zweiri and Thomas Bonnie James

The 2023 war in Gaza has become a focal point in international relations, attracting the attention of various nations with vested interests in the region. A prominent player in this conflict is Iran, which has played a significant role in shaping the discourse surrounding the Palestinian cause. This article aims to delve into the intricate web of Iran's perspective on the Palestine-Israel conflict, examining its historical development, the domestic political ramifications and the international reactions to Iran’s involvement. The article analyses Iran's stance on the Gaza conflict, focusing on its rhetoric, key themes and diplomatic nuances. It also explores the relationship between Iran and its allies, examining its involvement in the events of 7 October and the Hamas attack on Israel. Iran faces a difficult decision of intervention and restraint, with supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's realist approach providing context. examining the potential acceleration of Iran's nuclear programme as a response to the conflict highlights the correlation between military strategies and geopolitical considerations. lastly, the article delves into the intricate relationship between Iranian politics and public sentiment, highlighting the diverse perspectives within Iranian circles and the varying views of the Iranian public. It also examines the surprising lack of grassroots support for the Palestinian cause within Iran, highlighting the influence of media, social dynamics and economic concerns on public opinion.

Mahjoob Zweiri is Professor in Contemporary Politics and History of the Middle East with a focus on Iran and the Gulf region and Director of Gulf studies Center at Qatar University. Before joining Qatar University in 2010, he was senior researcher in Middle East Politics and Iran at the Center for Strategic Studies, University of Jordan. From 2003 until 2006 he was a research fellow and then Director of the Centre for Iranian Studies in the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at Durham University. He has more than 90 publications in areas such as Iran and Contemporary Middle East History and Politics, Gulf Studies, Social Sciences in the University of the Future and Artificial Intelligence and Social Sciences. His latest book is Arab-Iranian Relations Since the Arab Uprisings (2023).

Thomas Bonnie James is a PhD Candidate in the Gulf Studies Program, Qatar University.

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The war on Gaza: carnage of hard power

Walid Kazziha

The attack by Hamas against the Israeli settlements on Gaza’s northern border on October 7 had the limited objective of taking as many captives as possible to exchange them later, with a growing number of Palestinian detainees in Israeli prisons. However, the operation, while it did achieve its objective, seemed to go sour as anarchy prevailed with the flow of undisciplined crowds into the settlements, precipitating acts of violence. The reaction to Hamas resulted in a war of vengeance against Gaza, with clear indications that the carnage created has rendered the towns and villages of the Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank unfit for living. Witnessing the huge destruction of life and property, the world woke up to the tragedy of the Palestinians. Calls were made to end the violence and the option of a two-state solution gained momentum. Yet historical precedence seems to defy such a course of action. On previous occasions when the world attended to the various sides and parties of the conflict between Israel and its Arab neighbours, it was often Israeli reluctance to make the necessary territorial concessions that led to failure. The typical syndrome followed a familiar pattern, in which Israeli leaders begin having disagreements and friction among themselves, then their American allies fall into confusion and inaction resulted. This has plagued the course of the so-called peace process between Israelis and Palestinians since 1967. Biden has made it clear that he not only favours the two-state solution, but that in preparation for its realisation, Netanyahu should distance himself from the extremists and accept the Palestinian Authority as a negotiating partner. Netanyahu has already rejected Biden’s recommendations and opted for a defiant position. In all probability, Biden will shy away from a confrontation and the call for a two-state solution will be frozen. Consequently, Israel will continue to rely on its hard power without relinquishing its hold on the territories it occupied in 1967.

Walid Kazziha is Professor of Political Science, several times chairman of department and former Director of Graduate Studies in the Department of Political Science at The American University in Cairo. He is a specialist in the field of Middle East Politics, with particular reference to the politics of the Arab East, Egypt and the Gulf region. He has taught a wide range of courses focusing on government and politics of the Middle East, the Arab-Israeli conflict, civil society in the Middle East, political Islam, Arab political and social thought, the Middle East in Global Politics and conflicts in the Gulf. He has authored and co-authored several books, including Egypt's Tahrir Revolution, Revolutionary Transformation in the Arab World, Palestine in the Arab Dilemma and a monograph, The Social History of Southern Syria.

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A Palestinian perspective: post-7 October 2023

Hiba Husseini

It was against the backdrop of over a century of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that the Hamas assault on Israel threw the entire Middle east into turmoil on 7 October, redirecting a trajectory that the United States had been pursuing with some Arab states eager to normalise relations with Israel with little, if any, serious regard to the Palestinian plight. A new geopolitical and strategic architecture will likely evolve in the aftermath of the assault without the possibility to return to the status quo ante. A new era for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is emerging and another era for some regional and Arab states, especially Qatar, which is playing a mediating function in the release of the hostages and the Palestinian prisoners. The world may very well become multipolar as Iran’s role also unfolds in this war. One thing is for sure, the “Question of Palestine”, which started in 1917, is still shaping the Middle East and is central in the emerging new Middle East order.

Hiba Husseini chaired the Legal Committee to Final Status Negotiations between the Palestinians and Israelis and has served as legal advisor to peace process negotiations since 1994. She has written widely on the peace process, the rule of law, economic development and Jerusalem, recently co-authoring with Dr. Yossi Beilin the "Holy Land Confederation" (2022), an enabler for the two-state solution. Among her other most recent publications are Palestine from a Flawed Democracy to Authoritarianism (2023) and Participation of East Jerusalem in Future Palestinian Parliamentary and Presidential Elections: Challenges and Policy Options (2023). She serves on the Board of Trustees of Al Quds University and the American Board of the Middle East Partnership for Peace Fund (MEPPA).

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Orient III 2024: Challenges to trade in the Middle East

Orient III 2024: Challenges to trade in the Middle East

Orient III 2024: Challenges to trade in the Middle East

Orient II 2024: Aspects of digital transformation from the Gulf to North Africa

Orient II 2024: Aspects of digital transformation from the Gulf to North Africa

ORIENT I 2024: Perspectives on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

ORIENT I 2024: Perspectives on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict