01/10/13
Orient IV 2013 – Focus: Iran
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Orient IV 2013 – Focus: Iran
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Reflections on Iran’s 2013 Presidential Elections
Professor Anoush Ehteshami and Dr. Luciano Zaccara
Since 1979 the Islamic Republic has held literally dozens of elections for various bodies and portfolios. Iranian elections are always interesting to observe and despite the authoritarian nature of the regime such elections as the presidential ones matter a great deal, for not only do they provide a window onto the workings of the Islamist state, but more importantly because their outcome really matters and actually does affect the country’s policy process and Iran’s direction of travel. The outcome of such national polls also tells us something about the balance of political forces in this faction-ridden polity. For these reasons, this paper considers the background to the crucial June 2013 presidential elections, reviews the standing of the ‘selected’ candidates, and delves into an analysis of the domestic political context for the election victory of Hojjatoleslam Hassan Rouhani. In doing so, the paper also explores some of the national and international ramifications of his victory.
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Edging towards equilibrium – The presidency of Hassan Rouhani
Dr. Rouzbeh Parsi
What does the political landscape look like after eight years of Ahmadinejad and what did he represent beyond the caricature? That landscape is now President Hassan Rouhani’s inheritance. As a centrist who won with the help of reformist voters, how can he navigate this landscape? The economy is the most pressing issue and it entails improving management at home and mending fences abroad. The latter requires both resolving the nuclear issue and the regional conflicts that have a sectarian dimensionwhich makes them extremely dangerous.
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Hassan Rouhani: Iran’s New Hope for Change
Professor Dr. David Menashri
Dr. Hassan Rouhani’s surprising sweeping victory in Iran’s June 14 presidential election marks an important, refreshing change in Iranian politics. His public statements during the campaign and since his election reflect different positions from those sounded regularly during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s tenure, not only in tone but also in content, and not only on internal matters but also in reference to the West, with promises of greater transparency regarding the nuclear project. But the structure of the revolutionary regime, its power mechanisms (constitutional and governmental, civilian and military), the election process that does not actually allow free elections, and the strong ties between the new president and the regime, including the security establishment, have for many only emphasized the continuity of the system rather than the opportunity for change with the election of the new president. Some did not
even wait for the election results to be announced before averring that no real change is to be expected, certainly not on the issue of particular interest to the world outside Iran – the nuclear program. This essay, focusing on Iran’s internal dynamics, attempts to answer three main questions: (1) To what extent is there potential for real change in Iran’s policy given the conditions that led to the election of the current president, the scope and sources of his support, his personality and world view, and his abilities to confront the conservative forces at the helm of other governing mechanisms, headed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is supported by the Revolutionary Guards, the security establishment, the regime’s institutions, and the religious structure? (2) Which elements encourage change in Iran’s policy? In this context, the essay examines long term factors (the struggle for social justice and civil liberty) and the more immediate issues (President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s economic policy and the growing, cumulative effects of the sanctions, especially in the year preceding the election) that paved the way for political change and encourage the prospects for change. (3) Even assuming that Hassan Rouhani will in fact work to promote a process of change, what is the probability that this will also entail a significant shift in relations with the West, particularly regarding the Iranian nuclear program, which is striding consistently on a tight schedule toward the critical threshold?
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What is power in Iran? The shifting foundations of the Velayat-e faqih
Dr. Arshin Adib-Moghaddam
In this short essay I will disentangle some of the foundations of power that underlie the system of the Velayat-e faqih. I will show how in the build-up of the post-revolutionary state the nature of power of the Abstracts faqih changed from a religious-theological ideal-type to a pragmatist-realist one. If Ayatollah Khomeini was a revolutionary cleric who brought about sudden and radical change in Iran and beyond, his successor Khamenei appears as a pragmatist “prefect” of Khomeini’s contested political legacy, whose foundations of power are by far more sober and formalised than those of the late leader of the Iranian revolution.
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New Iran by the Moderates: An analysis on sociopolitical forces and government
Saleh Zamani
Occurrence of the Islamic Revolution in Iran (1979) made widespread changes in the structure of the old regime. These changes were not merely in some institutions and structures but rather included the composition of new social forces. Direct participation of Iranian people in polity, start of development and industrialization programs, some social freedoms, spread of collective media, development of an education system and international relations are the most important factors which affected the structures and the social forces after the Islamic revolution. These factors led to the formation of state as a political system to face new challenges. On the other hand, social forces had new requests to one of the main divisions of social forces was a “new middle class” which was formed in the process of modernization after the Iran-Iraq war. Today, for grasping and understanding the political development after the revolution, attention should be paid to the role of this class and its relation with the state. The points at which social forces and state conjunct to each other are presidential and parliament elections. In my article, the role and demands of social forces are mentioned and also challenges of the state in this new condition will be analysed.
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"The Mirror has Two Faces": The Islamic Republic's Dual Policy toward the Internet
Liora Hendelman-Baavur
Hassan Rouhani’s sweeping victory in the election for presidency in June 2013 was soon followed by high-profile declarations of his political manifesto to recover Iran’s international standing, improve its economy, and solve the country’s social dilemmas. On various occasions during his campaign and after his election, Rouhani spoke of the need to reduce government intervention in people's private lives and to increase transparency in addressing the country’s problems, the significance of gender equality in rights and opportunities, and the futility of the country’s current internet censorship policy. Coinciding with the president-elect’s advocacy of reducing Iran’s Internet restrictions, the Ministry of Information and Communications Technology (MICT), announced the launch of the country's “national email” service. Provided by the state’s post company, Iran email-meli is set to assign an individual email address to every citizen for “security and privacy” purposes, with the intention of “improving” the interaction between the authorities and the country's 42 million reported Internet users (comprising more than half of Iran’s population). This initiative is part of the Islamic Republic’s ongoing efforts to establish a “clean” and “moral” national intranet. However, many of Iran’s savvy internet-users suspect the government and security agencies intend to further increase their web control, and that the MCIT’s development of the domestic Internet, announced in 2011, actually designed to serve as a filternet. This article focuses on the Islamic Republic’s dual policy toward the Internet. On the one hand, Iran’s leadership aims to develop and expand local ICT services to promote its regional and international interests and priorities, especially in response to the country’s ongoing “soft-war” with the West. The regime also invests and trains the country’s younger generation in and through the use of advanced technologies, with the additional aim of projecting a democratic image. On the other hand, Iranian authorities are making arduous efforts to maintain high levels of control and censorship over the local media, including the Internet.
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The Iranian Women’s Movement: Agency and Activism through History
Dr. Sanam Vakil
Trump’s second term signals a major transformation in U.S. foreign policy, marked by a retreat from global leadership and a return to transactional alliances. This shift elevates Türkiye’s regional role, especially with the emergence of a new Syria creating opportunities for cooperation. Stark policy differences persist, however, particularly over Palestine, where Türkiye supports a two-state solution while Trump supports Israel’s war in Gaza. As Washington redefines its global commitments, Turkish-American relations will hinge on pragmatic collaboration while policy disagreements on regional issues might limit the partnership’s potential.
Women have been active agents of change participating in all Iranian political movements dating back to the late 19th century. Their support for the Iranian Revolution was pivotal for the Islamic regime but what emerged in the aftermath of the revolution was a contradictory Islamic policy towards women. Over three decades, women have been at the forefront of social and political change benefiting from a demographic boom and access to education. Their engagement in campaigns and political movements including the 2009 Green Movement has facilitated the growth, maturation and unity of women’s activism.
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Rethinking Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions
Arastu Salehi
Diplomatic disputes, sanctions, and calls for war have dominated relationships between Iran and the West, furthering instability in a region that has been restructured by global power shifts, foreign interventions, and popular uprisings, for better or worse. This paper argues and explicates how the concerns over Iran’s nuclear program are largely based on a misreading of Iran’s current geopolitical and economic interests, especially as they pertain to the industrial and energy sector, position in the region and global order, history, as well as the current political climate. Following these arguments, this article tries to outline policy-recommendations on how the US should integrate realities in regards to Iran’s nuclear and economic interests in the region into a framework for policies that could construct mutually beneficial policies.
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Between Cyber War and Arab Spring: How Iran’s Military and Security Forces Confront Current Threats and Challenges
Alexander Niedermeier
The article deals with the primary current domestic and international security challenges faced by Iran and the way the regime deals with them on the (para-) military level. Additionally to possible kinetic attacks in connection with Iran’s nuclear program, Teheran’s threat perception also comprises cyber-attacks both by foreign powers and the domestic opposition as well as possible spreads of the Arab Spring movements that might extend the Arabellion into an Irabellion. Iran reacts to this multifaceted threat situation with its Mosaic Doctrine, a strategy of both offensive and defensive asymmetric warfare in the kinetic as well as the cyber realm, and the Preemptive Jihad approach. In all these measures, the Pasdaran and Basij forces play a predominant role. The article analyzes these specific forces, their ideology, their new mission and the means and strategies to achieve the set goals.
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Recent developments and challenges in Iran’s oil and gas sector
David Ramin Jalilvand
As the government of Iran’s new president Hassan Rohani is starting its term, Iran’s oil and gas sector is confronted with various challenges. This article reviews recent developments in the Iranian oil and gas sector and outlines challenges that it is facing in the years ahead. These include the completion of an ambitious but currently halted subsidy reform, the question of whether to focus on energy exports or domestic consumption as well as the future path of the energy sector in the country’s political economy.
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Regional Impact of the Third Phase of Syria’s Civil War
Professor Dr. Fred H. Lawson
Syria’s civil war has entered an explosive third phase. Radical Islamist forces now lead the military campaign against the Ba’th Party-led regime of President Bashar al-Asad. The Islamists compete with one another for popular backing, but have alienated the general public by fighting with other militias and assaulting minority communities. In response, Kurds and ‘Alawis have created armed formations to protect their co-religionists. The growing sectarianization of the conflict resonates with sectarian mobilization in Turkey, Iraq and Lebanon, which threatens to spread the war across state boundaries.
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