Thilo Bodenstein, Mark Furness
Since the Arab Uprisings, the objective of European democracy support in the Middle East and North Africa has shifted from political transformation towards pragmatic, development-oriented engagement. The EU faces an essential dilemma between its interest in democracy and the need to engage with authoritarian regimes seen as essential for regional stability. In an increasingly multipolar region, Europe needs to maintain its offer of democracy support but rethink how to make it more effective.
Thilo Bodenstein is Associate Professor at the Department of Public Policy at Central European University in Vienna. His research focuses on the politics and policies of development donors, policy learning, and evidence-based policymaking.
Mark Furness is a senior researcher in the Inter- and Transnational Cooperation department at IDOS. His
research and policy advisory work focuses on German and EU development cooperation with the MENA
region.
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Dr Abdullah Hemmet Abdullah
Europe’s difficulty in the Middle East and North Africa is often described as a shortage of power. This article argues instead that the central problem is failed strategic conversion: European law, finance, diplomacy and market access are substantial, but are not translated consistently into recognised influence. Gaza exposed this credibility deficit. A four-part framework—legal consistency, political coherence, instrument proportionality and regional reciprocity—is proposed to renew EU agency.
Dr Abdullah Hemmet Abdullah is Associate Professor of Islamic Thought and Civilization and International Law at the Islamic University of Gaza, and a PhD researcher at ISTAC–IIUM. His research addresses international law, MENA geopolitics, intellectual security and civilizational relations.
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Thierry Pairault
The European Union is the dominant, long-established trading partner of the five Mediterranean African
countries, with durable, treaty-based, duty-free access. The temporary, undifferentiated tariff exemption
granted by China, worth only USD 80–110 million, cannot match this. Given the twenty-five-fold export
gap and the prohibitive cost of freight from China to North Africa, the Chinese tariff exemption will leave
EU-Mediterranean African trade essentially unaffected in the short term, at least. The exemption announced by China in February 2026 is not intended to function as a commercial strategy, but rather as a
geopolitical gesture.
Prof Dr Thierry Pairault, socioeconomist and sinologist, is an Emeritus Research Director at France’s
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Francis Ghilès
A keen understanding of geopolitics was at the heart of Chancellor Helmut Kohl and Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez’s decision to launch the Barcelona Process a generation ago. The EU’s strategic failure in
the early 2000s is to have failed to read the Russian leader Vladimir Putin correctly and to become the
sub-contractor of American policy in the Mediterranean. As the fear - irrational or not, of being invaded
by the Other from the South grips European leaders, the failure to rethink its relations with the Mediterranean countries will condemn the European project to strategic irrelevance.
Francis Ghilès is an Associate Research Fellow at CIDOB, the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs,
Visiting Fellow at King’s College, London, and Member of the Frontier Energy Network. Over an 18-year
career at the Financial Times, he focused on security, energy, and political trends in North Africa and the
Western Mediterranean. His freelance work has appeared in Le Monde, The New York Times, and El
País, and he is a regular contributor to the BBC World Service.
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Nir Levitan
The 2026 conflicts exposed vulnerabilities in global trade. This article examines Israel’s strategic role in IMEC, linking India and Europe through the Middle East, and its potential to diversify trade routes amid geopolitical competition.
Dr Nir Levitan is a Senior researcher and lecturer specializing in diplomacy, mediation and negotiation,
affiliated with the Department of Political Studies at Yezreel Valley College in Israel. A research fellow at
the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies and a research affiliate at the Center for Cold War Studies
at the SDU, Denmark.
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Sieglinde Gstöhl, Jacopo Giraudo
This contribution traces the European Union’s evolving role conception since 2003 from normative transformer and political stabiliser to an emerging geopolitical actor in the Southern dimension of the European Neighbourhood Policy. It shows that gaps between this self-image, the Mediterranean partners’ expectations and the EU’s actual performance persist, although a more pragmatic approach has gradually narrowed the divides.
Sieglinde Gstöhl is Director of the Department of EU International Relations and Diplomacy Studies at
the College of Europe in Bruges, Belgium. Her research focuses on EU external action, including trade
and neighbourhood relations.
Jacopo Giraudo is Assistant to the Director of the Department of EU International Relations and Diplomacy Studies at the College of Europe in Bruges, Belgium. His research interests include EU external action and the European Parliament.
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Dr Eldad Ben Aharon
In November 2025 the United States designated Saudi Arabia a Major Non-NATO Ally, formalising an already extensive security partnership. This article argues that MNNA increasingly marks privileged security ties below the treaty threshold. The Saudi case reveals a U.S.-centred Gulf security architecture that deepens regional integration without collective defence, while constraining Europe’s scope to shape the region’s hard-security order.
Dr Eldad Ben Aharon is Senior Researcher at PRIF. His book, Israeli–Turkish Relations at the End of
the Cold War, was published by Edinburgh University Press in 2025. His research covers international security, memory politics, public and digital diplomacy, and international norms.
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Dr Andrew Dahdal
This article examines how the EU’s GDPR data controls and GCC data localization policies interact with
each other and the impact this has on both outbound and inbound data flows between the two jurisdictions. The ability of a European firm to send protected personal data out of Europe is regulated by Article 45 of the GDPR which mandates recipient jurisdictions deemed ‘adequate’ by the European Commission in terms data protection laws. In countries where data localization laws exist, it is not merely a question of getting data out of Europe but also comply with local laws to store that data domestically. In juris dictions like the GCC, that have yet to achieve the ‘adequate’ designation, this has created a number of challenges for European firms seeking to expand into that region. The article concludes by offering guidance on how firms are dealing with this dilemma in both technical and legal terms.
Dr Andrew Dahdal earned his PhD from the University of New South Wales (UNSW) in Sydney, Australia,
and is currently an Associate Dean and Associate Professor of Commercial Law at Qatar University. His
research focuses on the intersections of law, finance, technology, and sustainability. His most recent
book is Digital Currencies and Public Law: History, Constitutionalism and the Revolutionary Nature of
Money (Routledge, 2025) Dr. Dahdal is an advisor to public and private sector stakeholders on legal and
regulatory matters involving finance and emerging technologies. He played a key role in Qatari digital
asset reforms and is the Chair of the Commercial Law group at the International Association of Law
Schools (IALS). Dr. Dahdal has taught law in Australia, Europe, and the Middle East. In addition to his academic role, Dr. Dahdal serves in the Office of General Counsel at Qatar University.
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Ali Akbar
Iran has long held a prominent role in the Middle East, with its influence particularly evident in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. However, the outbreak of the Israel–Gaza conflict in October 2023 and the subsequent regional realignments have gradually weakened Iran’s strategic position, especially in light of Hezbollah’s reduced power in Lebanon and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. This article examines the implications of this decline for Iran’s soft power in two countries: Syria and Lebanon.
Ali Akbar is a researcher and lecturer at the University of Melbourne in Australia, where he received his PhD in Islamic studies. He is an expert in the field of Islamic studies with a focus on contemporary Islamic thought and Middle Eastern politics as well as Iranian politics with a focus on Iran’s foreign policy in the Middle East and beyond. He is co-author of Iran’s Soft Power in Afghanistan and Pakistan (Edinburgh University Press, 2023) and co-editor of Political Secularism and Religion (MDPI, 2023). He is the lead author of Contemporary Approaches to the Qur’ān and Its Interpretation in Iran (co-authored Abdullah Saeed, Routledge, 2020) and sole author of Contemporary Perspectives on Revelation and Qurʾānic Hermeneutics (Edinburgh University Press, 2020). He is the author of a recently published book entitled Contemporary Reformist Responses to Traditional Shiʿa Discourses (Edinburgh University Press, 2025) and a forthcoming book entitled Iran’s Soft Power: Influence Across the Globe (Routledge, 2026). Dr Akbar has also published more than 40 articles in journals including Middle East Critique, Arabica, Die Welt des Islams, British Journal of Middle East Studies, Iranian Studies, Mediterranean Politics, Contemporary Politics, Third World Quarterly and Political Theology
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Nora Maher
This article asks: How does the 2026 US–Israeli war on Iran aim to reshape the Middle East order? It argues that the war is part of a broader effort to reorganize regional power by weakening major states, controlling strategic resources, and limiting Iran’s influence. In response, Iran seeks to turn the war into an opportunity to secure political and economic gains. It situates the conflict within its broader geopolitical context, unpacks the strategic logic driving the war, and assesses Iran’s adaptive response and its implications for the regional order. The article concludes that the war could lead to major regional changes, but its final outcome remains uncertain.
Nora Maher is the Associate Professor of Political Science and Head of the Political Science Department at May University in Cairo. She earned her Ph.D. in Political Science with a specialization in International Relations from Cairo University. Her research focuses on strategic studies, Middle East international relations, Arab–Israeli conflict, foreign policy analysis, and conflict studies. Dr. Maher has taught at several institutions, including the American University in Cairo, the British University in Egypt, and Université Française d’Égypte. She has published in peer-reviewed journals including Policy Perspectives, Contemporary Arab Affairs, Review of Economics and
Political Science, and is the author of two books on Israeli foreign policy and the Arab–Israeli conflict. Her recent work examines GCC–Iran relations, China’s role in the Middle East, and U.S.–China strategic competition. She is a member of the Midwest Political Science Association and the Arab Political Science Network, and serves as a reviewer for several international academic journals.
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Pardis Asadi Zeidabadi, Atlas Torbati and Dorreh Khatibi-Hill
This article examines how the Islamic Republic of Iran manages wartime legitimacy through a dual strategy of narrative control: the selective mobilisation of women’s images and restrictions on digital communication. It argues that women’s visibility is strategically used to project national unity and resilience, while internet shutdowns suppress competing narratives. At the same time, women and diasporic communities continue to challenge state narratives through digital resistance.
Pardis Asadi Zeidabadi is a Researcher and Visiting Lecturer in the Department of Sociology and Criminology at City St. George’s, University of London. Her research focuses on gender equality, feminism, migration, gender-based violence, and the experiences of MENA diasporic women, with particular expertise in Iranian women’s activism and feminist movements. She is the first co-editor of The Politics of Gender and Rights: The Islamic Context (2025) and has published in journals including Politics & Gender, Gender, Place & Culture, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, and Trauma, Violence, & Abuse. Her work explores women’s agency, safety, participation, and gender justice in Middle Eastern and diasporic contexts.
Atlas Torbati is a Senior Lecturer on the MA Understanding Domestic Violence and Sexual Abuse (UDVSA) at Goldsmiths, University of London. She has extensive experience researching gender-based violence within diaspora communities, with a particular focus on how migration, displacement, and cultural belonging shape experiences of harm, help-seeking, and recovery. Her work also examines the intersections between diaspora, mental health, and the lived experiences of both women and men subjected to gender-based violence. Her scholarship situates sexual violence at the centre of the production, maintenance, and contestation of militarised, authoritarian, and settler-colonial regimes. Her recent edited volume expands on these themes, arguing that conflict must be understood as lived through bodies and social relations as much as through formal warfare.
Dorreh Khatibi-Hill is in her fifth year of a part-time Ph.D. in Media and Cultural Studies at Leeds Beckett University. Her research focuses on women's rights, activism—particularly online activism—intersectional feminism, social media, and participatory culture. Her thesis is a media and cultural project examining Iranian women’s activism and online participatory culture. It explores how Iranian women use social media to influence public perceptions of women’s status and to educate themselves and others about women’s issues. In addition to her academic pursuits, Dorreh is a Senior Programme Lead at Bauer Academy, where she teaches media production. She is also an activist advocating for women’s rights in Iran, particularly for those from marginalised groups.
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Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
This article surveys recent evidence on the economic, social, and political effects of sanctions on Iran. It argues that sanctions operate through macroeconomic contraction, institutional adaptation, and distributional change. They weaken growth, investment, and the middle class, while generating health, environmental, and informalsector costs. Yet they have not produced major political change, instead reinforcing some existing power structures.
Mohammad Reza Farzanegan is Professor of Economics of the Middle East at Philipps-Universität Marburg, where he leads the Economics of the Middle East Research Group at the Center for Near and Middle Eastern Studies. He was an Alexander von Humboldt postdoctoral fellow at ZEW Mannheim and TU Dresden in 2010–2011. He earned his PhD in Economics from TU Dresden in 2009, an MSc in Energy Economics and Marketing from the University of Tehran, and a BS in Theoretical Economics from Allameh Tabataba’i University in Iran. His research focuses on the political economy of Iran and the Middle East, with particular attention to sanctions, corruption, conflict, natural resources, inequality, and the shadow economy. Philipps-Universität Marburg, Center for Near & Middle Eastern Studies (CNMS), School of Business and Economics, Economics of the Middle East Research Group, Marburg, Germany. Farzanegan@uni-marburg.de
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Mark N. Katz
This article examines what Russia has and has not done in the security realm for Iran and Tehran’s “axis of resistance” allies since the outbreak of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, what factors limit Russian support for Iran and its allies, how Iran has reacted to Russia’s less than fulsome support, and what this suggests about how much Iran can rely on Russia in the future.
Mark N. Katz is professor emeritus of government and politics at the George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government, and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. He has written extensively on Russian relations with the Middle East.
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Said Albimani and Şaban Kardaş
The Gulf region is central to global economy due to hydrocarbons. While oil and gas are their primary income source, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council place huge hopes in their developmental plans on economic diversification and transformation. Achieving these objectives, expressed in vision plans, requires a stable maritime environment, as coastal investments and overseas projects form the backbone of these projections. An unstable maritime domain triggers security concerns and invites foreign intervention, jeopardizing future vision plans and developmental trajectory.
Said Albimani
Dr. Said Abdullah Albimani is a retired colonel and former fighter pilot in the Royal Air Force of Oman. He
holds a doctorate in Gulf Studies from Gulf Studies Center, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University.
sa2101928@student.qu.edu.qa.
Şaban Kardaş
Dr. Şaban Kardaş is a Research Professor and Program Coordinator at the Gulf Studies Center, College of
Arts and Sciences, Qatar University. skardas@qu.edu.qa.
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Lakshmi Priya
GCC countries have been at the receiving end of soft power projection by the external and extra-regional powers for a long time. However, with the depleting hydrocarbon resources and consequent focus on economic diversification, the countries are aiming to emerge as smart powers by blending hard and soft power. They have the required economic hard power owing to oil wealth and are gradually realising the significance of soft power. The article focuses on the fact that they are pro-actively engaged in soft power projection through cultural diplomacy. The article aims to understand the factors necessitating investment in cultural diplomacy while situating the GCC countries on the evolutionary graph of cultural diplomacy.
Lakshmi Priya is an Associate Professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.She has published a number of articles, papers and media pieces onWestAsian politics and has been associated with think tanks like MP-IDSAand ICWA. Dr. Lakshmi Priya is the corresponding author and her email address is lakshmipriya_f2002@yahoo.co.in
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Anass Gouyez Ben Allal
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This paper examines public diplomacy sources of Türkiye in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) via utilization of Nicholas Cull’s public diplomacy framework. Türkiye paid heed to the views of MENA publics through embassies, Directorate of Communications and think tanks. Ankara advocated fight against Islamophobia, Palestinian cause and a fairer representation in the United Nations. Türkiye also undertook restoration work, promoted its language, touristic destinations and television series while carrying out educational exchanges and international broadcasting activities in the region.
Fatma Aslı Kelkitli works as a full professor in Political Science and Public Administration department at Istanbul Arel University. Her research interests encompass international politics, Turkish foreign policy and public diplomacy.
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Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat and Shafa Kalila Aryanti
This article analyzes soft power cooperation between Indonesia and North Africa as a reciprocal process shaped by education exchange, cultural diplomacy, religious networks, and shared anti colonial histories. It argues that these interactions build institutional ties and diplomatic goodwill, yet their broader societal impact remains limited due to structural constraints, language barriers, geographic distance, and modest program scale.
Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat was a Research Professor at Busan University of Foreign Studies. He is currently the Director of the Indonesia-MENA Desk at the Centre for Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) in Jakarta and a Research Affiliate at the Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore.
Shafa Kalila Aryanti is a researcher at the Center of Economic and Law Studies, where she works with the Indonesia MENA Desk. She earned her undergraduate degree from Universitas Indonesia. Her research examines Indonesia’s political, economic, and policy engagement with Middle East and North Africa countries, with particular attention to energy transition, investment, and regional cooperation.
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Zahid Shahab Ahmed
This article examines how Saudi Arabia deploys religious diplomacy as an instrument of statecraft in its relations with Pakistan. It asks to what extent the Kingdom translates its custodianship of Islam’s holy sites into political influence and how effective this strategy is in shaping Pakistan’s alignments and policy preferences, focusing on the mechanisms and institutional channels of Saudi religious soft power.
Zahid Shahab Ahmed is an Associate Professor at the National Defence College in Abu Dhabi, UAE. He
is the lead author of Iran’s Soft Power in Afghanistan and Pakistan (Edinburgh University Press, 2023).
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Melodena Stephens
This short article explains soft power and applies it to emerging markets like the Middle East. It explains what soft power is and what it is not. Further, it illustrates the patience required to build soft power, especially in a geopolitical, conflict-prone world where old skills of diplomacy are being lost. Many of the narratives come from the author's research and experience living in the region since 2004. Finally, it highlights the fact that soft power is dual-edged. Restraint and global citizenship should not be confused with a lack of hard power. This is not smart power, which is a combination of hard and soft power. It is a choice.
Melodena Stephens is a Professor of Innovation & Technology Governance at the Mohammed Bin Rashid School of Government, Dubai, UAE. She is an innovation policy and governance thought leader in crisis management, strategy, and frontier technologies such as AI, as well as international business and entrepreneurship. She works as an expert with entities such as IEEE SA, the Council of Europe, the World Economic Forum, the World Government Summit, Meta, TCS, and many governments. Melodena loves to write and blogs at www.melodena.com
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Luigi Narbone
Over the past decade, the MENA and Sahel regions have become key arenas for Russia’s expanding influence. While often associated with hard power, Moscow’s strategy also relies on hybrid warfare and soft power, including propaganda and disinformation campaigns, to shape narratives, influence public opinions and support preferred actors. These strategies are very effective in fragmented conflict countries but work less well in more stable political systems, where the scope for intervention is constrained. Consequently, in the latter countries Moscow relies primarily on traditional forms of interstate cooperation, with more limited results. This article examines how these hybrid strategies operate in Libya and Algeria, highlighting their differences and effectiveness.
Luigi Narbone is the Vice-president of the Mediterranean Platform, a Rome-based think and act non-profit organisation as well as a professor of MENA geopolitics at Luiss Guido Carli University. Before moving to academia, he had a long diplomatic career at the United Nations and the European Union. From 2008 to 2012 he was EU Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries.
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